Will 2008 be the beginning of a Vintage Correction?

[JofZ]

Election years typically create an unstable economy. I have already seen my industry go through the beginning of a correction period and we are talking about 20+M pieces of equipment. Retail is down in the USA.
The backlogs for small production consumer goods (High end) is still very long. In some cases up to 7 years. The global economy has created a huge amount of competition for things like fine wine, cigars, watches, yachts, aircraft, artwork.
I am curious if any of you think we will see a correction in the vintage market?
After all, there is still a fair amount left in this country and some collectors are bound to face bumpy financial times ahead. Others with idle cash will jump right in and might keep the market stable :confused:. I thought by now we would see a drop in the secondary vintage market. Guitars like Jr's, and SG's would surely be the first to drop.
Any thoughts?

[B Vance]

Election years typically create an unstable economy. I have already seen my industry go through the beginning of a correction period and we are talking about 20+M pieces of equipment. Retail is down in the USA.
The backlogs for small production consumer goods (High end) is still very long. In some cases up to 7 years. The global economy has created a huge amount of competition for things like fine wine, cigars, watches, yachts, aircraft, artwork.
I am curious if any of you think we will see a correction in the vintage market?
After all, there is still a fair amount left in this country and some collectors are bound to face bumpy financial times ahead. Others with idle cash will jump right in and might keep the market stable :confused:. I thought by now we would see a drop in the secondary vintage market. Guitars like Jr's, and SG's would surely be the first to drop.
Any thoughts?

Good question Jason.

To some extent I think the Vintage market has already begun its correction phase. As capitalists we all know that something is only worth as much as someone is willing to pay for it. In most circumstances, I think that the people who were willing to pay the BIG $$$ for vintage gear have already done so. There'll always be people willing to sell vintage items, but in order to do so the prices are going to have to come down to meet what the customers are willing to expend.

The only thing I'm not sure of is how the suffering of the Dollar relative to other currencies is going to play into the equasion. I have a feeling we could see a lot of the good stuff jumping the pond.

[PeeWee]

I believe that it's already taking place. I had reports from a long time dealer friend that at the Delaware Guitar Show prices for certain models ( '50s Les Paul Jrs) had been slashed by as much as $5K from the going rate 6 months earlier and still weren't moving. I was told that a number of dealers who vend vintage only were more than a little uneasy at the prospect of being stuck with inventory in which they paid more than the current market value dictated it was worth to the buyer. Bad for the dealer but good for you and I and the players who covet these instrument for exactly what they were meant for - being played!

Let's face it, the vintage market has been on a constant incline for a number of years now, with prices sometimes doubling in what seems over night. I firmly believe that the only people that honestly care about these types of instruments are "Boomers" that grew up in an age where their heroes weilded the same models. The younger generation to a degree doesn't give a damn about that kind of thing. All it would take for the entire vintage collector market to come crashing down would be for a few of these guys to flood the market with their pieces. As a result, prices would drop like a rock and an instant correction would take place. I don't feel as though they'll ever be cheap again like they were in the '70s and early '80s, but they'll certainly be far more affordable to the average guitarist.

[B Vance]

Another thing that I've noticed is that it's not a complete frenzy over ALL vintage pieces, just the good ones.

I can remember when the craze was in its peak seeing guys trying to sell 70's strats for $6,000.

As for the younger generation...I'm probably half as old as most of you guys and I'd like nothing more than to have a 50's tele and an early 60's strat. But, I'll admit I am probably in the minority and I would definitely consider myself more discerning than most in my age group.

[Skreddy]

Considering the amount of "money" (i.e.; debits and credits in databases) swirling around in virtual (equities and credit-based derivatives) markets right now, there is plenty of cash available for collectors to place into the market. Whenever the dollar loses and the stock market loses, investors will find tangible assets to park their wealth in. Doesn't matter if it's real estate or gold coins or vintage guitars. The one thing you can count on in today's economy is that the wealthy will always take care of themselves first. The market correction will not affect tangible assets that are not based on inflated dollars. Vintage collectibles will not suffer much, I predict, compared to other types of investments. In fact; you'll see things that were scorned just a few years ago suddenly becoming "desirable." The market has to create value in order to justify moving wealth into it. So expect prices to move in such a way as to make anything that could be considered collectible unaffordable to the common player.

[Crazy-Guitars]

vintage market???? i am going to the South Carolina show,,,so i will look and see what items are selling for...........I just sold my 1964 fender Super Reverb for 2500..only changes-were tubes and power chord..condition -excellent!!!